A dark fourth quarter
One thing that can be said about Daniel Noboa is that he does not procrastinate. In the midst of a severe energy crisis caused by the bad situation of the electricity sector, he sent a bill proposing the re-installation of foreign military bases in Ecuador. The last US military base, located in Manta, was approved during the government of President Jamil Mahuad back in 2000. It was terminated by former President Rafael Correa once the constitution of 2008 was passed prohibiting such bases on Ecuadorian territory.
No doubt this will be a major axis of Noboa’s campaign for 2025 as an important aid to reduce drug-related crime and violence, and it has been positively received in several political sectors. If the Assembly approves the bill, it has to be confirmed through a referendum that might coincide with the second round of the election, set for next April.
However, although President Noboa is agile in launching new ideas, his government has not been effective in bringing even temporary relief from the electricity problem, which has escalated due to the country's most severe drought in 61 years. Ecuadorians will suffer programmed electric blackouts of eight hours this week and next week from 10 pm to 6 am, in order to carry out minimal overhauls of the transmission system to avoid a major catastrophe. Since during this time crime could thrive, the Ministry of the Interior has announced it will be deploying 42,000 effectives from the police and armed forces to control possible violence or even a sabotage of the oil and electricity plants.
A large part of the manufacturing sector will suspend night shifts and suffer estimated economic losses of $1.2 million per lost hour. This problem adds to the one the agricultural sector is enduring due to the loss of over 7,000 hectares of crops. Production of bananas alone (one of our major traditional exports) is down 30% in the last two months due to the lack of rain.
The deadline to register political alliances for the next election passed two weeks ago, and leftist parties were not able to reach a wide agreement. Only RETO, a small party that obtained 0.49% of votes in 2023, agreed to run together with Revolucion Ciudadana. On the other hand, there were 57 requests to form alliances for the provincial legislative elections, seven of which have already been approved by the electoral council. Noboa’s ADN is not a part of any of these alliances, and President Noboa will have to assess carefully his political chances running as a “Lone Ranger”.
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