Economics: The 2027 General Pre-Criteria for Economic Policy shows excessive optimism and disconnect from Mexico’s reality

MEXICO - Report 20 Apr 2026 by Mauricio González and Francisco González

At the beginning of the month, the SHCP sent the General Pre-Criteria for Economic Policy for 2027 (PCGPE) to the Congress of the Union. These documents constitute the first step in the budget preparation process for the coming year and include an update of the macroeconomic framework and the expected evolution of public finances for 2026, as well as the projections for 2027 in those areas.

The estimates of macroeconomic variables and the financial situation of the public sector contained in the document are highly optimistic and, in some cases, of doubtful feasibility. Furthermore, what is most concerning is this administration’s vision and interpretation of the current economic situation and, above all, of the prospects, policies, and strategies for the near future. In our opinion, these are not grounded in reality. This engenders high economic risks and renders public policies ineffective in achieving their intended objectives.

In any case, the main “novelty” — although it dates back to the presentation of Plan México in early 2025 and the subsequent unsuccessful investment announcements made together with the business sector — is the emphasis placed on the role of private investment in driving economic growth next year. However, these statements represent more good intentions than a concrete strategy with specific instruments and actions.

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