VENEZUELA
Analysts
Ruth Krivoy
Former Central Bank President
Tamara Herrera
Former Advisor, Banking Industry AssociationDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Central bank adopts a (de facto) crawling peg
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Nov 2024
We have revised up our inflation and exchange rate projections following the October breakdown of the exchange rate peg and the subsequent volatility and uncertainty in the foreign exchange market. We foresee that the central bank will have the necessary resources to sustain a gradual devaluat...
On pause
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Oct 2024
Nicolás Maduro, who is hugely unpopular, is heading toward his January 10th swearing-in ceremony for a third presidential term guided by two strategic objectives: to ensure cohesion within his ruling group and to build renewed "legitimacy" via tighter institutional control. He counts on repressio...
The exchange rate anchor finally gave in
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Oct 2024
On Friday, October 11, the unsustainability of the policy of anchoring the official exchange rate materialized. The BCV sold $30 million in an “auction” in which it gave signals about the price it was looking for and took the rate to 39.75 bolivars per dollar, marking an increase of 3 percent in ...
A complex landscape
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 09 Oct 2024 · 1 response
The 2024-2025 outlook is strongly influenced by the July 28, 2024 events. They raised the risk of diplomatic and economic isolation, imposed a brake on growth and disinflation, and increased the likelihood of an exchange rate crisis that might derail stabilization policy. Avoiding this course req...
New uncertainty
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Oct 2024
Venezuela is in limbo and not. It is in limbo because the National Electoral Council has not published the results of our past elections in accordance with the law, and the Supreme Court's ruling designating Nicolás Maduro the victor was illegal. This awarded Maduro with power but no legitimacy a...
Oil revenues will set the tone
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Sep 2024
Prior to July 28, inflation had been contained thanks to tight control over the official exchange rate, strong competition, and highly price-elastic consumer demand. In August, however, the inflation rate soared to 1.4 percent, double July’s 0.7-percent rate. We attribute this acceleration to a s...
Immune to everything?
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Aug 2024
The Supreme Court of Justice has validated the results of Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election that had been announced by the National Electoral Council. The formality was carried out amidst a wave of harsh repression that sent the message that those in the upper echelons of government have ...
Webinar Replay - Venezuela Political Briefing
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Aug 2024
Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the country's international standing and its economic and political outlook in the aftermath of Venezuela's pivotal 2024 presidential elections What can the international community do? Will there be room for negotiations? How could ...
We see more volatility and more risks
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Aug 2024
We have revised our inflation and exchange rate projections down for this year. We keep our projections for 2025 while we reassess the development of the political crisis that surfaced with the July 28 elections. We think the government will stay its economic policy course, aimed at reducing i...