UKRAINE
Analysts
Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Former Advisor, State Property Fund
Dmytro Boyarchuk
Executive Director, CASE-UkraineDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Inflation slows, but NBU holds rate at 15.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Sep 2025
On September 11, the NBU Board, as expected, kept the prime rate unchanged at 15.5%. Inflation has been slowing for the past three months, reaching -0.2% m/m and +13.2% y/y in August. However, poor crop yields and persistent uncertainty with no progress in peace talks continue to weigh on the mon...
Don’t look up: watch the “peace deal”
UKRAINE · Report · 09 Sep 2025
It’s remarkable how world leaders skillfully avert their eyes from harsh realities, continuing to speak of some fanciful end to the war, and "security guarantees" that offer neither security nor guarantees. This diplomatic ballet feels especially detached from reality when viewed from Ukrainian c...
Zelensky backs down in anti-corruption clash: reputation bruised, need for elections grows
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Aug 2025
After facing sharp criticism from Ukrainian civil society, noisy (though not massive) protests, and unprecedented pressure from European leaders, the European Commission, and IFIs, President Zelensky backed down from his attempt to undermine the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption instituti...
NBU holds rate at 15.5% as poor crop outlook fuels inflation risks
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Jul 2025
On July 24th, yesterday, the NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15.5% for the third consecutive time. Concerns about the 2025 crop outlook are among the key reasons behind this decision. Wheat yields are expected to be about 5% lower than last year, and projections for other crops are als...
Zelenskiy dismantles anti-corruption independence in power consolidation push
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jul 2025
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has behaved poorly in recent weeks. The President’s Office (through the Cabinet) derailed the reboot of the Economic Security Bureau of Ukraine (ESBU) by rejecting an independent candidate selected by a commission that included international experts. The ESBU reboot ...
"New" cabinet or musical chairs reshuffle?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Jul 2025
The Ukrainian leadership has launched a Cabinet reshuffle. The possible replacement of former Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal had been discussed for several years, but he remained too convenient for President Volodymyr Zelensky—flexible and without any personal agenda—making him easy to keep in plac...
Desperate for any minor win, Putin escalates terror tactics
UKRAINE · Report · 30 Jun 2025
While peace talks lead nowhere, we’ve shifted our attention back to the front lines—where developments on the ground have a real impact in deterring Russian aggression, unlike the endless cycle of negotiations. As of this writing, reported Russian losses in Ukraine have exceeded 1 million kill...
NBU holds prime rate at 15.5% as easing delayed pending inflation peak
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Jun 2025
As expected, the NBU’s April signal about possible easing moves in June did not materialize. At today’s meeting, the NBU Board kept the prime rate unchanged at 15.5%. The decision was influenced by unseasonably cold spring weather, which led to rising food prices—particularly for fruits and veget...
Summer offensive looms, on the heels of performative diplomacy
UKRAINE · Report · 27 May 2025
U.S. President Donald Trump continues to consistently fail in delivering on his promise to end Russian aggression. His threats to increase pressure on the Kremlin are clearly not being taken seriously. Each time Trump makes a statement, Russia responds with defiance or escalated brutality—yet Tru...