UKRAINE
Analysts
Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Former Advisor, State Property Fund
Dmytro Boyarchuk
Executive Director, CASE-UkraineDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Monetary policy: NBU raises key policy rate to 15.5% in a preventive move amid rising risks
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Jul 2026
The NBU Board raised the key policy rate by 0.5 ppt to 15.5%, effective 31 July. This was the first rate increase since the beginning of the year. Recall that in January the NBU cut the rate from 15.5% to 15.0%, signalling the start of an easing cycle. However, no further easing followed since th...
Momentum shifts: Zelensky visits Washington amid improving US sentiment toward Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Jul 2026
Today’s meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump in Washington was different from what we have grown accustomed to. For the first time under this administration, Ukraine’s president arrived in the American capital against a genuinely favorable news backdrop and amid moderately positive...
Zelensky reshuffles military leadership as mobilization pressures mount
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Jul 2026
After a week of street protests over the dismissal of former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi with Mykhailo Drapatyi. Recall that after the dismissal of the Svyrydenko Cabinet, one narrative began to spread that the enti...
Ukraine secures IMF funds, but the political cost of implementation is mounting
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Jul 2026
The IMF Executive Board completed the First Review of Ukraine's four-year, $8.1 billion Extended Fund Facility on July 20, releasing an immediate disbursement of about $690 million. Cumulative disbursements under the programme now reach roughly $2.2 billion — about 27% of the full package, five m...
Zelensky's decision to remove Fedorov sparks fury: street protest announced
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Jul 2026
As speculation over the removal of the Svyrydenko Cabinet built through the week, the consensus among Kyiv insiders converged to the point that the real target of the whole maneuver was to remove Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. The wider cabinet reshuffle, among other things, allowed for addre...
Unexpected Cabinet reshuffle: Svyrydenko out, Naftogaz chief Koretskiy likely to take the lead
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Jul 2026
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced today that he has decided to reshuffle the Cabinet and replace current Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko with someone else — the most likely candidate being the head of Naftogaz, Sergiy Koretskiy. Other personnel changes have also been announced. Although it ...
Losing Crimea would end Putin’s regime, so new escalation likely
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Jul 2026
Ukraine's drone-based logistical blockade of Crimea is proving effective, while still in its early stages of scaling, backed by tens of billions of dollars in EU funding. Unlike Kherson in 2022, when Washington restrained Ukraine from destroying the encircled Russian grouping, external limits on ...
NBU keeps prime rate at 15% despite easing inflation
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Jun 2026
The NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15% at its June meeting today. Consumer inflation eased in May to +0.9% m/m (or +8.2% y/y) from +1.4% m/m (or +8.6% y/y) in April. In early June, Ukraine received the next €2.8 billion wire from the EU, and we seemingly have positive news from Iran. ...
GDP drops 0.6% in Q1 2026, growth outlook remains subdued
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Jun 2026
Ukrainian GDP dropped by 0.6% in Q1 2026, according to the updated estimates of the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine. Devastating missile and drone attacks on energy infrastructure through January and February 2026 are behind the GDP drop. On the demand side, the drop is reflected in an 8.0 ...