TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Erdogan throws hat into ring----amidst war drums
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Nov 2024
Turkish politics entered the Twilight Zone after a brief experiment with “normalization”, which is a wind of fresh breath for Yours Truly, who has become a crisis junkie long time ago. Just like the good old days, each new dawn brings fresh shocks, most of which contradict the main developments o...
Higher hopes in diplomacy meet higher inflation forecasts
TURKEY · Report · 10 Nov 2024 · 1 response
Ankara has Great Expectations from the second Trump presidency, some of which seem plausible. Yet, it is somewhat premature to make precise forecasts of exactly in which topic progress can be made in the troubled bi-lateral relationship, until Trump selects his cabinet. Additionally, what Trum...
In between a rock and a hard place on inflation
TURKEY · Report · 08 Nov 2024 · 1 response
In the last Inflation Report of the year, the CBRT revised the inflation forecasts for end-2024 and end-2025 materially upwards to 44% (from 38%) and 21% (from 14%), respectively (both midpoints). While the former is no surprise at this point, the latter revision is a bit more significant than we...
Erdogan declares war on Kurds
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Nov 2024
Barely had the Turkish body-politic recovered from the sacking of CHP Esenyurt (Istanbul) mayor, Prof Ahmet Ozturk, Erdogan dealt a second blow to tranquility by ordering the ouster of three Kurdish (DEM Party) mayors in the provinces of Mardin, Batman as well as the Halfeti town in the province ...
October inflation: some good, some bad news
TURKEY · Report · 04 Nov 2024
Consumer prices rose by a higher than expected 2.9%, m/m, in October, markedly exceeding consensus forecasts of around 2.5%, with the 12-month rate nevertheless falling to 48.6% from 49.4%, on the back of continuing base effects. Monthly PPI inflation was a more modest 1.3%, with the 12-month rat...
Audentes Fortuna Iuvat
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2024
Turkey’s bombastic and excitable pundit community discussed nothing but the peace offering of MHP leader Mr. Bahceli to Kurds. President Erdogan is generally supportive of Bahceli, but has so far refused to take the leadership of a new Peace Process, as talks on addressing Kurds’ grievances are c...
Politics gets chaotic, economics business as usual
TURKEY · Report · 27 Oct 2024
In yet another startling development to mark the end of a remarkable October, MHP leader Bahceli invited the incarcerated leader of the PKK, Abdullah Ocalan, to address Kurdish party DEM’s parliamentary caucus, raising hopes for a second Peace Process. If PKK declares a cease-fire and renounces v...
U-Turn in politics, IMF reality check in economics
TURKEY · Report · 20 Oct 2024
In October, Turkish politics witnessed a startling change of course, as Messrs. Bahceli and Erdogan extended an olive branch to DEM, a party which represents the majority of the Kurdish constituency. DEM and its predecessors were for years treated as pariahs by the Republican Alliance. Ostensibly...
Heightened uncertainty over disinflation pace acknowledged, but...
TURKEY · Report · 17 Oct 2024
As expected, the CBRT/MPC remained on hold today, keeping the policy rate (one week repo) at 50%. The first paragraph appears to have been modified somewhat, while the rest of the statement regarding disinflation strategy and monetary policy guidance is exactly the same with September statement.