TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Events
Recent Country Insights
MPC reduces the policy rate more than expected
TURKEY · Report · 11 Sep 2025
The CBRT/MPC reduced the policy rate by a more-than-expected 250 bps today to 40.5%, compared with a revised market consensus of 200 bps, with equal reductions in O/N lending and borrowing rates. To recall, until about 10 days ago, the consensus was another 300 bps cut, but this was revised down ...
Clashes in Istanbul, terror in Izmir
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025
Gursel Tekin pits CHP followers against the police: The sacked CHP Istanbul provincial administration issued a call to members to congregate in front of the headquarters “to defend our ancestral home” against invader Gursel Tekin. Several hundred heeded the call marching towards the building, whe...
MTP 2026-28: Some quick thoughts
TURKEY · Report · 08 Sep 2025
The Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2026-28 was published in the Official Gazette and presented by Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz and his economic team, including Finance Minister Simsek and CBRT Governor Karahan, at a press conference this morning. We lay out some quick thoughts below.
All eyes on CHP, MTP and CBRT
TURKEY · Report · 07 Sep 2025
The month of September will be action filled. In his first essay, the politics author tries to explain the deep web of traps the Erdogan-controlled legal system weaved for CHP, which is very difficult to recap in an executive summary. It suffices to say though that there are at least 8 lawsuits i...
CHP vs Goliath
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Sep 2025
Turkey’s Judicial year started with little fanfare, but a sucker attack on CHP’s Istanbul flank. The 45th District Court passed interim ruling. Suspending fraud in the Party’s passed delegates selection for the Grant Convention. It sacked Istanbul Chairman and the 196 delegates elected by the str...
Little respite in August inflation
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2025
Consumer prices rose by a somewhat higher than expected 2.0%, m/m, in August, with the 12-month rate easing modestly further to 33.0% from 33.5% in July. Monthly PPI inflation posted a 2.5% increase in the month, on the back of a marked increase in energy/electricity prices, as the 12-month rate ...
Higher than expected Q2 growth, fueled by stock changes
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Sep 2025
According to data announced by Turkstat, second quarter GDP growth markedly exceeded expectations, including of this author, in both sequential and annual terms, coming in at 1.6%, q/q, and 4.8%, y/y, respectively (Graph 1). As usual we briefly focus on the sequential data here, which reflects th...
An early and a brief start
TURKEY · Report · 31 Aug 2025
We’ve decided to end the summer holiday of our Sunday Weekly earlier than planned, with a very brief update on the latest political and economic developments. Turkey experienced the hottest August in at least 30 years, which triggered crop failures, forest fires, and general lethargy among cit...
A brief macro update
TURKEY · Report · 15 Aug 2025
As our weekly report is on its usual holiday till September, we thought a very quick update on the past week’s developments could be useful, hence this post. In a nutshell, growth was likely stagnant in the second quarter, the CBRT Survey now places the policy rate at 35% by the end of this year,...