PHILIPPINES
Analyst
Diwa Guinigundo
Former Central Bank Deputy GovernorDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
More red flags on the external payments front
PHILIPPINES · Report · 21 Aug 2026
The Philippines’ external position is flashing red but not yet in crisis. The US$5.3-billion January–July BOP deficit and the decline in GIR to US$103.3 billion warrant vigilance. However, reserves remain substantial at 6.7 months of imports and 3.7 times short-term external debt. The bigger i...
Market Testing Philippine Macroeconomic Resilience
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Aug 2026
The peso nearly breached ₱62 to the dollar on August 19, touching an intraday record low of ₱61.995 before recovering slightly to close at ₱61.815. The sell-off was not confined to foreign exchange: Philippine equities and fixed-income markets also turned jittery. Peso-Dollar Rate: January 5 to A...
GDP slowdown: disappointing but expected
PHILIPPINES · Report · 11 Aug 2026
The Philippines’ second quarter 2026 real GDP is deeply disappointing, but hardly surprising. The slowdown reflects not only external shocks such as the Middle East conflict and higher energy prices, but also weakening domestic fundamentals. Household consumption has lost momentum as inflation c...
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr's performance scorecard: mixed...
PHILIPPINES · Report · 03 Aug 2026
The Marcos administration's first four years have been marked by a mixed but consequential economic record. Its strongest achievement has been the restoration of macroeconomic stability after the COVID-19 crisis. Inflation has eased from its post-pandemic highs, economic growth has remained among...
Two inflation shocks, one policy challenge
PHILIPPINES · Report · 20 Jul 2026
The Philippines is facing two simultaneous inflation shocks: a larger-than-expected wage increase and renewed external pressures from volatile oil markets and a weaker peso. Together, these could delay the return of inflation to target, underscoring the importance of maintaining credible monetary...
The Philippines reclassified as an upper-middle-income country: a milestone, not the destination
PHILIPPINES · Report · 06 Jul 2026
The World Bank's reclassification of the Philippines as an upper-middle-income country marks an important achievement in the country's economic journey and recognizes its resilience and sustained macroeconomic progress. Yet the greater challenge lies not in attaining a higher income classificatio...
BSP extends regulatory relief to banks amid the Middle East conflict: a new dimension of Central Banking?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 24 Jun 2026
In providing a temporary regulatory relief to the banks, this Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) regulatory response represents a departure from the conventional approach adopted by most regional central banks by combining monetary policy with targeted prudential and supervisory relief for banks...
Managing inflation, preserving monetary policy credibility
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Jun 2026 · 1 response
If there is one key implication of inflation slowing from 7.2% in April to 6.8% in May, it is that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) now has greater flexibility in calibrating monetary policy. The moderation in inflation reduces the urgency for either an off-cycle policy meeting or an aggress...
Mindanao Earthquake: A Humanitarian Crisis and a Test of Governance
PHILIPPINES · Report · 10 Jun 2026
Every year, the Philippines confronts major natural disasters, from typhoons and floods to volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Yet 2026 has proven particularly devastating. On the morning of June 8, a powerful magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck offshore near Sarangani Province, making it one of the ...