MEXICO
Analysts
Mauricio González
Former Director of Economic Policy, Finance Ministry
Guillermo Valdés
Former Director, Center of Investigation & National Security
Mariano Ruiz-Funes
Former Director of Financial Policy, Ministry of Finance
Francisco González
Economic Consultant, GEA Grupo de EconomistasDatabanks
Events
Recent Country Insights
Economics: Financing to the non-financial private sector weakens in the second quarter of 2026
MEXICO · Report · 08 Sep 2026
Financing to the non-financial private sector slowed sharply in the second quarter of 2026, in both its domestic and external components. Consumer credit continues to post high growth rates, but that behavior stems mainly from the banking penetration of segments previously served by SOFOMES and f...
Politics: Between propaganda and reality — what Sheinbaum's Second State of the Nation Address said, and what it left unsaid
MEXICO · Report · 08 Sep 2026
Mexico's tradition of presidentialism, once expressed through the ritual of the president's State of the Nation Address to Congress, has effectively been abandoned since 2006 rather than reformed into a genuine mechanism of accountability; Sheinbaum, like her predecessors, delivered her Second St...
Politics: Rocha Moya and the conflict at the top of Morena and the 4T as a whole
MEXICO · Report · 31 Aug 2026
Rubén Rocha Moya's abrupt and short-lived return to Sinaloa's governorship, followed within 33 hours by a second, indefinite leave of absence, exposed a serious rift at the top of Morena over who truly controls the movement — Claudia Sheinbaum or her predecessor's inner circle. Rocha Moya's decis...
Economics: Mexico's August data shows a rebound in some sectors but it won't translate into lasting growth
MEXICO · Report · 31 Aug 2026
Mexico's economic indicators released in August showed a partial rebound: private consumption grew 2.6% YoY in May and gross fixed investment rose 2.4%, following twenty consecutive months of decline, while June's IGAE advanced 1.7% annually, and revised second-quarter GDP came in with 1.9% annua...
Economics: Macroeconomic scenarios 2026-2030 and their political determinants
MEXICO · Report · 24 Aug 2026
We frame Mexico's macroeconomic outlook for 2026-2030 around four scenarios, the probabilities of which point to a predominantly adverse picture. The most likely scenario (50%) is the inertial one, in which government policy remains largely unchanged: the erosion of the rule of law — reflecte...
Politics: Implications of the U.S. visa revocation for AMLO's son
MEXICO · Report · 24 Aug 2026 · 1 response
The revocation of the U.S. visa of AMLO´s eldest son, known as “Andy”, was a low-cost, secretive, and unexplained administrative measure targeting a man with no formal government role that triggered a political crisis wildly disproportionate to the act itself, exposing deep fractures within Mexic...
Economics: Following the Q2 GDP rebound, a slowdown is expected in the second half of the year
MEXICO · Report · 18 Aug 2026
Second-quarter 2026 GDP growth surprised to the upside at 2.1% annually, but the strength came almost entirely from volatile or previously depressed components — mining, agriculture, residential construction, wholesale trade, and health services — that are unlikely to sustain their momentum throu...
Politics: Homicides declined in 2025, but the real numbers and the effectiveness of the government's strategy remain in question
MEXICO · Report · 17 Aug 2026
INEGI's preliminary 2025 homicide figures (27,989, a rate of 21.4 per 100,000 inhabitants) confirm a genuine decline in intentional homicides, but one considerably smaller than the government claims. A gap of over 4,300 cases separates INEGI's count from the SNSP's. The gap is rooted in divergent...
Politics: Freedom of expression is at risk under a new initiative
MEXICO · Report · 10 Aug 2026
Mexico's government is advancing Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (CRT) guidelines meant to regulate audience rights under Articles 6 and 7 of the Constitution and the 2025 Telecommunications Law, but the initiative has triggered sharp controversy. Critics argue the rules concentrate exce...