MEXICO
Analysts
Mauricio González
Former Director of Economic Policy, Finance Ministry
Guillermo Valdés
Former Director, Center of Investigation & National Security
Mariano Ruiz-Funes
Former Director of Financial Policy, Ministry of Finance
Francisco González
Economic Consultant, GEA Grupo de EconomistasDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Economics: ENIGH 2024—higher labor income and government transfers; less targeting and effectiveness of social spending
MEXICO · Report · 12 Aug 2025
The results of the 2024 National Survey of Household Income and Expenditures (ENIGH) show significant increases in current household income across all deciles, due to growth in labor income and government transfers. As we have noted in previous reports, both the increase in the minimum wage and t...
Politics: Upcoming electoral reform—another significant blow to Mexican democracy
MEXICO · Report · 11 Aug 2025
The final step in AMLO's "Plan C", aimed at guaranteeing the ruling party the 2/3 qualified majority needed to modify the Constitution and thereby avoid the legislative or judicial branch's nullifying the 4T’s policies, is about to be concretized in the form of the Electoral Reform. On August 3 ...
Economics: The latest public finance results are favorable but insufficient to halt debt growth as Pemex continues to deteriorate financially
MEXICO · Report · 04 Aug 2025
The evolution of public finances in the first half of 2025 and Pemex’s recently released operating results for the second quarter of 2025 point to a complex outlook for macroeconomic stability and the Mexican economy’s medium-term prospects. Government finances continued to deliver favorable resu...
Politics: Scandal puts ties between politicians and organized crime under the spotlight
MEXICO · Report · 04 Aug 2025
A major scandal has erupted in Mexico with far-reaching short, medium, and long-term consequences. On July 12, General Miguel Ángel Martínez revealed that there is an outstanding arrest warrant for Hernán Bermúdez Requena, former Secretary of Public Security of Tabasco. He is charged with crimina...
Politics: Violence and homicides—how are they measured and how much progress has been made?
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jul 2025
Public security is the number one issue for most Mexicans, and addressing, improving and resolving this issue is of key importance for the current presidential administration. In fact, it is the policy question in which President Sheinbaum has most clearly—although not explicitly—differentiated h...
Economics: The data released in July shows the economy remains stagnant
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jul 2025
The IGAE for May showed a 0.4% yoy uptick but on average, from January to May 2025, the Mexican economy showed no growth. The public finance report for that same month shows some apparent strength thanks to robust income tax and VAT collections alongside spending and debt reductions. However, the...
Economics: Data through May shows tariffs are hurting the trade performance of Mexico's major exporting sectors to the US but also have led to a drop in US exports to Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jul 2025
On July 12, President Trump issued his latest tariff threat against Mexico, consisting of a 30% across-the-board tariff starting August 1, due to what he considers insufficient efforts by the Mexican government to stop fentanyl trafficking and the steep trade deficit that the US maintains with Me...
Politics: Ties between Morena and organized crime place Sheinbaum between a rock and a hard place
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jul 2025
The thorny problem of ties between Morena governors and other public officials and organized crime, far from going away, is intensifying. These ties include the creation of large-scale criminal operations such as fuel theft, known as “huachicol”; the exchange of territorial control for electoral ...
Economics: Public finance results in May show some positive results but not enough to forego a further deterioration
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jul 2025
Some public finance results for May showed positive figures, but not many are expected to endure. The fiscal deficit was lowered a real -47% yoy thanks to an increase in budgetary revenues, especially robust VAT and income tax collections. However, depressed excise tax collections and oil-related...