MEXICO
Analysts
Mauricio González
Former Director of Economic Policy, Finance Ministry
Guillermo Valdes
Former Director, Center of Investigation & National SecurityDatabanks
Events
Recent Country Insights
Economics: Gross fixed capital formation in August posts a contraction due to a significant weakening in construction
MEXICO · Report · 12 Nov 2024
The Inegi published figures for gross fixed capital formation as of August, which showed an annual -0.9% contraction. This was the first decline since February 2021 and is attributable to a -6.0% contraction in construction investment, while the machinery and equipment component increased 5.0%. ...
Politics: Judicial reform becomes constitutional, with no other option left for opponents
MEXICO · Report · 12 Nov 2024
On Tuesday, November 5, what was the last hope for opponents of Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador and newly inaugurated President Claudia Sheinbaum’s Judicial Reform vanished into thin air as, at the last minute, the Supreme Court failed by one vote to obtain the 8 vs 3 majority required to rule on its...
Economics: October data shows a lackluster economy as public finances deteriorate further and the inflation outlook remains murky
MEXICO · Report · 04 Nov 2024
A review of indicators published in October confirms the slow coasting of the economy and an accelerating deterioration of public finances. Industrial sector growth trickled to a mere 3 bps in August, largely in response to a sharp drop in civil engineering works, while manufacturing again grew ...
Politics: Embedded and emboldened organized crime groups with links to the government are a major problem for Sheinbaum
MEXICO · Report · 04 Nov 2024
The most striking feature of most balance sheets of security under López Obrador's government was the level of violence. Despite official statistics registering a downtrend in homicides in the past two years, for AMLO’s entire six years in office there were close to 200,000 murders and more than ...
Economics: Additional social programs and lack of fiscal reform spell further deterioration of public finances
MEXICO · Report · 29 Oct 2024
The Ministry of Finance will deliver the 2025 Economic Package to the Chamber of Deputies on November 15. Only then will it be possible to learn in detail about the current government's policies, ostensibly aimed at reducing the fiscal deficit, guaranteeing the financing of social programs and in...
Politics: Reform impasse deepens as Sheinbaum ignores court and moves to ban judicial review of reforms
MEXICO · Report · 28 Oct 2024
Just two weeks ago, we provided an account of the serious conflicts generated by passage of the judicial reform proposals championed by the previous and current presidents of Mexico and the constitutional crisis it had ignited. Since then, the crisis has steadily deepened, fanned by the increasi...
Economics: Economic and political regime change modifies the balance of risks in the medium-to-long term
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2024
Amid a wave of fresh constitutional reforms, some already approved and others progressing at a fast clip, the arrival of the new president and Federal Congress marks a shift in the country's economic-political regime—a shift that defines a balance of risks and opportunities that are quite differe...
Politics: Governability risks on multiple fronts
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2024
With Claudia Sheinbaum in office less than three weeks, analysts, as well as political, economic, and social actors, are raising questions on the challenges the new government faces in terms of guaranteeing governability. In this week’s edition of the Political Outlook we highlight 28 risks in th...
Economics: Afores (private pension funds) could be the next source for financing the growing public deficit
MEXICO · Report · 15 Oct 2024
Public finances have continually weakened, especially in the past three years, with ever-increasing public deficits. For 2024, it is estimated that the public deficit will close at nearly 6% of GDP. The factors underpinning this forecast are that the federal government accelerated its spending to...