ISRAEL
Analyst
Sani Ziv
UN Economic ConsultantRecent Country Insights
December CPI release: a downward surprise
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025
The consumer price index reading for December was down by 0.3%, below market expectations for an index between 0.0% and 0.1%. This brought the annual inflation rate down to 3.2% from 3.4% in November, with core inflation (seasonally adjusted, excluding housing, fruits, and vegetables) at 3.1%—sli...
The BoI stressed demand concerns rather than declining supply constraints
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Jan 2025
1. A cautious monetary stance will most likely postpone easing until end-May. 2. The BoI dilemma centers around the concern regarding a post-war consumption surge, a concern we think is exaggerated. 3. Business confidence improved in December due to the ceasefire, while consumers remain pe...
The BoI appears more concerned about excess demand on inflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Jan 2025
Geopolitics: The Northern border remains calm with the cease-fire holding. The Israeli air force with the US/GB attacked military and infrastructure in Yemen. Some drones from Yemen were shot down last week but no sirens went off. Low-level hostilities continue in Gaza. The Israeli negotiating te...
A somewhat hawkish hold by the MPC
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Jan 2025
A somewhat hawkish hold by the MPC There were no real surprises in the rate (hold) decision, but the announcement was more hawkish than we had expected. The same inflationary risks were copy/pasted from the last decision: ”there are several risks for a possible acceleration of inflation: geopolit...
A dovish “hold” expected today
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Jan 2025
1. We expect a rate-hold decision today, with a more dovish bias. 2. Business sector optimism improved sharply in December. 3. Private consumption has been robust into year-end in anticipation of higher taxation.
A dovish "hold" expected today (Monday)
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Jan 2025
Geopolitics: The Lebanese border remains calm while Israel has neutralized military capabilities in Syria (recently a precise missile production factory). Periodic ballistic missiles fired from Yemen have been shot down before entering Israel. The Israeli negotiating team returned to Qatar in ord...
Robust CA surplus and FDI remain shekel supportive
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Dec 2024
1. Both the current account surplus and FDI remained robust in Q3, supportive of the shekel. 2. Residential investments increased in Q3, but completions are still below the current demand. 3. We maintain our forecast of 2.4% inflation NTM (lower end of consensus), and three rate cuts in 2...
External fundamentals remain robust and shekel supportive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Dec 2024
Geopolitics: Israel’s geopolitical situation has greatly improved, following the ceasefire in Lebanon (still holding), the end of the Assad regime (breaking the flow of armaments from Iran to Hezbollah), and the weakening of Iran in the region (having lost an important ally in Syria). Nevertheles...
Strong fundamentals (CA surplus and FDI) remain shekel supportive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Dec 2024
The current account improved in the 3rd quarter of 2024 reaching 5.5bn USD (SA) from 4.9bn in the previous quarter and 5.6bn in the 1st quarter. The net trade/service balance increased to 5.0bn from 4.2bn. Foreign direct investments in Israel reached 5.6bn in Q3 from 6.3bn in Q2. Portfolio invest...