CHINA
Analyst
FAN Gang
Board Member, People's Bank of ChinaDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
China decoupling and “Altasia”
CHINA · Report · 30 Mar 2023
The economy was still on a recovery track in January-February, but a slow one. Industrial output rose 2.4% y/y, up 1.1 pps from December 2022. The seasonally adjusted m/m growth rate was weak. Investment rose 5.5% y/y, up 0.4 pps from last year, driven mainly by infrastructure investment with a g...
Treat recovery data with caution
CHINA · Report · 28 Feb 2023
Because of Chinese New Year, the statistics bureau didn’t announce price, financial and PMI data until February. China switched from zero-COVID lockdown to almost no restrictions in December 2022, and by January 2023, normal life had nearly returned. The economy is generally improving, but cautio...
Pandemic factor finally lessening
CHINA · Report · 08 Feb 2023
The economy grew 2.9% y/y in Q4 2022, down from the 3.9% growth reported in Q3, and GDP grew 3% in 2022. A number of negative factors affected the economy in 2022, including global macroeconomic tightening, the Ukraine crisis, real estate restructuring and the pandemic management policies. In thi...
Back on track in 2023
CHINA · Report · 30 Jan 2023
GDP grew 3% in 2022. Specifically, China’s economy rose by 2.9% y/y in Q4 2022, down from the 3.9% growth reported in Q3. Many negative factors affected the economy in 2022, including global macroeconomic tightening, the Ukraine crisis, real estate restructuring, the pandemic management policies ...
The shock of lifting COVID restrictions will be counteracted
CHINA · Report · 30 Dec 2022
In early December, China abandoned the zero-COVID policy restrictions it had maintained for nearly three years. This move was followed by a rapid increase in the number of infections all over the country. There are still challenges ahead, but we believe the economy should return to normal growth ...
Recovery again constrained by COVID
CHINA · Report · 25 Nov 2022
Growth is weakly recovering, with pressure ahead largely due to COVID prevention measures and related lockdowns. Although rumors have suggested that the zero-COVID policy could be abandoned, there were also signs that China would commit to this policy in the short term, citing reasons in state me...
Major growth pressure looms
CHINA · Forecast · 04 Nov 2022
Growth is slowly recovering, but pressure looms. In Q3, GDP rose 3.9% y/y, up 3.5 pps from Q2, mainly driven by infrastructure investment. Industrial output grew 4.8% y/y in Q3, up 4.1 pps from Q2. Investment rose 5.9%, up 0.1 pps from January to August, and has been rising for two consecutiv...
Growth is slowly recovering
CHINA · Report · 31 Oct 2022
Growth is slowly recovering, but pressure looms. In Q3, GDP rose 3.9% y/y, up 3.5 pps from Q2, mainly increased by infrastructure investment. Industrial output grew 4.8% y/y in Q3, up 4.1 pps from Q2. In particular, it rose 6.3% y/y in September, up 2.1 pps from August, leading the first three qu...
Recovery slows amid weakening global economy
CHINA · Report · 29 Sep 2022
Growth strengthened, but only slightly. In August, industrial output rose 4.2% y/y, up 0.4 pps, lifting overall January-August growth to 3.6%, up 0.1 pps. Investment rose 5.8% y/y in January-August, up 0.1 pps. The August growth rate was 6.4% y/y, up 2.8 pps. Real estate investment growth rate fe...