CHILE
Analysts
Robert Funk
Former President, Political Science Association
Igal Magendzo
Former Manager of Macro Analysis, Central Bank
Andrés Velasco
Former Finance MinisterDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
The sound of silence
CHILE · Report · 29 Oct 2025
The August economic activity data represented something of a setback. We treat these signals with caution: base effects from a year ago remain relevant, and the within-sector pattern is irregular. One-offs continue to drive commerce figures. The level of seasonally-adjusted manufacturing remained...
Economic stagnation meets polarized elections
CHILE · Report · 25 Sep 2025
Since February 2023, the Chilean economy has grown at an average rate of about 2.5%. The path, however, has been marred by sharp swings. July’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) rose 1% m/m (sa) and 1.8% y/y, recovering part of June’s drop. Health services led July’s rebound. This is mo...
Mind the calm, not the gap
CHILE · Report · 26 Aug 2025
In June the IMACEC was up 3.1% y/y, but that figure overstates momentum: much of the improvement reflects base effects and one-offs. Underlying consumption trends remain closer to stagnation than expansion. Business sentiment is still stuck in pessimistic territory, consistent with the slow pace ...
Marcel resigns
CHILE · In Brief · 21 Aug 2025
Chile's Finance Minister, Mario Marcel, widely viewed as a guarantor of economic responsibility, resigned this morning. He claims to have made the move for personal reasons. The widely held view is that he may take up a position at the IMF. Others say he may join the Jara campaign, although this...
Baseline scenario confirmed: U.S. tariffs exclude Chilean copper inputs
CHILE · In Brief · 01 Aug 2025
According to the official White House communication, the new tariff package imposes a 50% ad valorem duty on imports of certain semi-fabricated copper products (e.g., tubes, wires, rods, and sheets) and copper-intensive downstream goods (such as pipe fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical c...
Steady as she goes
CHILE · Report · 15 Jul 2025
Despite the headline boost in May’s IMACEC, the underlying momentum remains soft. The y/y figures will likely stay high into June, due to favorable base effects. IMACEC’s consumption-related sectors and retail sales point to softening consumption dynamics. This is echoed in commerce sentiment. Wi...
Chile's presidential primaries: the specter of Communism
CHILE · In Brief · 29 Jun 2025
In the introduction to the Communist Manifesto, Karl Marx announced that “a spectre is haunting Europe”. Marx had designed Communism to be a threat to the established order, and by the time he wrote his treatise, the established order was worried. Because early Communism stuck to its revolutionar...
A tale of two realms: economic silence and political noise
CHILE · Report · 27 May 2025
The Chilean economy has grown rather uneventful. Macroeconomic data points to a balanced economy with limited growth potential. National accounts for Q1 2025 confirm that growth is mostly export-led, while investment remains weak. Gross fixed capital formation growth y/y was positive in Q1, but t...
Cherries, tourists, tariffs and expectations
CHILE · Report · 07 Apr 2025
A breeze of optimism has swept across Chile. According to the national accounts, GDP grew by 2.6% in 2024. Still, we are not revising our baseline 2% GDP growth forecast for 2025 just yet. Several factors prompt caution. First, statistical distortions have been at work. Second, some temporary dri...