CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA
Analyst
Ivan Tchakarov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia notches another record-breaking year in tourism
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 13 Feb 2026
Tourism in Georgia has traditionally been an important income generator for the economy, having brought on average about 8.6 percent of GDP annually over 2010-2025 (and about 12.5 percent of GDP in both 2024 and 2025). Naturally, then, the events of the last two years spanning the adoption of the...
Kyrgyzstan: "Two friends never fight for power"
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 11 Feb 2026 · 1 response
President Sadyr Japarov clears the decks ahead of a high-stakes presidential race looming larger. For the second time since Oct Kyrgyzstan has come to the fore in terms of offering us a glimpse of how the obscure political field in the country operates. In a largely unexpected, albeit probably no...
Why is the Uzbek Soum losing some altitude in early 2026?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 10 Feb 2026
While I am on topic (see my report "Uzbekistan is gingerly breaking away from the twin-deficit curse"), I offer my pithy thoughts on the early-year softening of the UZS since I have been prompted by client questions. The 2025 unusual strengthening of regional currencies (vs the US$) figured prom...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan is gingerly breaking away from the twin-deficit curse
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Feb 2026 · 1 response
Probably the most cited economic risks for Uzbekistan over the years have been its persistent CA and fiscal gaps. Indeed, the twin deficits ballooned from a virtual balance in 2017 to a hefty 12.6% of GDP in 2023. The surge in fiscal spending in the post-COVID years and political cycle-related lo...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The South Caucasus through a strategic lens
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 Jan 2026
A new era is dawning in the South Caucasus, in which politics, geopolitical developments, and a changing energy and security picture will increasingly feature as key investment variables, rather than background noise. Elections will take place in 2026 in Armenia, consolidation in politics is unde...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Pashinyan is looking for agents of the KGB and "traitors of Christ" in Armenia
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 23 Jan 2026
The start of the political year in Armenia has been rich in events and indicative of the kind of fraught environment that we are to face in the runup to the all-important Parliamentary vote in Jun. This is not surprising as I argued in my Year-Ahead Outlook that I fully expected Armenia to be the...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current accounts posted further gains in 3Q25, reinforcing improvement in external buffers
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Jan 2026
Wading through BoP data may not be the most exciting thing in economic analysis, including because it is quite backward looking, but in my mostly frontier countries it helps elucidate key insights on the external side. The 3Q25 data for the CCA space has now been published for all economies save ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Rate monotony is the base case across the CCA in 2026, with a handful of compelling exceptions
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 09 Jan 2026
I have discussed on a number of occasions the analytical framework I employ to think about currencies in the CCA region, so I now turn to the rates space. I use three simple quantitative models in an attempt to pin down the proper stance of monetary policy in each individual country. I then proce...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The Carnegie Paradox; After the surge, CCA currencies move from boom to balance
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 19 Dec 2025
It may only be natural to have my last TOPIC OF THE WEEK for the year attempt a kind of philosophical diversion into, and analysis of, a recent Carnegie Endowment post titled "Passions over Ararat. Why is Pashinyan trying to change the Armenian national identity?" I zoomed in on this piece for a ...