CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA
Analyst
Ivan Tchakarov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Rogue E&O bring about fresh EU action on Kyrgyz banks
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 31 Oct 2025
Earlier in the month I argued that one should worry less about the snap Parliamentary vote in Kyrgyzstan and pay more attention to possible fresh sanctions on the economy, chiefly the banking sector. That threat has now materialized, with the EU slapping transaction bans on two Kyrgyz banks. I hy...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Is Uzbekistan poised to close the chapter on fiscal profligacy?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 Oct 2025
Wading through the 138 pages of Uzbekistan’s 2026–2028 Fiscal Strategy is a test of endurance, and of language skills, since the document exists only in Uzbek. However, it is very much worth the effort as it provides a glimpse into government's thinking about the fiscal envelope in the next coupl...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current accounts in the CCA take a positive turn in 2Q25
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 17 Oct 2025
Poring through BoP data may not be the most exciting thing in economic analysis, including because it is quite backward looking, but in my mostly frontier countries it helps elucidate key insights on the external side. The 2Q25 data for the CCA space has now been published for all economies save ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Kyrgyzstan’s early polls: Should investors flinch—or lean in?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 10 Oct 2025
One would be forgiven for fretting about the snap parliamentary vote in Kyrgyzstan on Nov 30th. In all of Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan has had the largest share of early votes (parliamentary and presidential), and those have often been associated with political crises and mass protests. In turn, my a...
Georgian Dream sweeps local vote, as expected
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 05 Oct 2025
The local elections held yesterday, Oct 4th, did not offer any surprises as the ruling Georgian Dream sailed to an easy victory. I argued recently that Georgian Dream is in the driver's seat with regard to the local elections, including because of the rifts in the opposition and its lack of succe...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: UZS benefits from a rare confluence of favorable external conditions
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 03 Oct 2025
Last week, I argued that CCA appreciation vs. the US$ has come to an end and may only resume on a sustainable basis should the RUB start strengthening again (the RUB has already retraced some of its recent losses). I stressed that the Uzbekistani sum was the only CCA currency that did not quite f...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA currency appreciation has come to an end
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Sep 2025
In mid-June I asked how long the CCA currency strength (vs the US$) would continue. My key thesis was that, beyond the myriad relevant macro stats, this would critically depend on the RUB. In short, I argued that the ongoing strengthening of local currencies vs the US$ would only have legs until ...
Topic of the week - 3Q2025 CCA Slide deck
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 19 Sep 2025
The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 206-slide detailed description of the economic status quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the third quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, inf...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan's fast growing population—a blessing or a curse?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 12 Sep 2025
About two years ago, spurred by William MacAskill’s “What We Owe The Future”, a book that focuses on long-termism and effective altruism, I tried to explore what the idea that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time might mean for the Caucasus and Central A...