CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA
Analyst
Ivan Tchakarov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Shall we brace for a currency crisis in Georgia?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Nov 2024
For a week we tried to steer away from Georgia and discussed (last week) the medium-term budgetary envelope in Uzbekistan, but events in Georgia give us no respite. The very large decline in FX reserves in Georgia last month has raised fears about the sustainability of FX buffers in an environmen...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan is on course to tame its fiscal excesses
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 Nov 2024
Uzbekistan's Ministry of Finance has presented a draft fiscal framework for 2025 with a headline deficit of 3% of GDP or UZS 49.3tn (US$ 3.7bn). This estimate is based on the consolidated revenues and expenditure of the state, the country's development fund, and 18 extra-budgetary funds. It will ...
Webinar replay : Georgia's Elections and Caucasus and Central Asia Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Nov 2024
Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the CCA's political and economic outlook. What will Georgia's outlook be following its war or peace parliamentary elections? Is Armenia's diamond bonanza over? How did Uzbekistan and Tajikistan manage to increase remittances and imp...
Slide presentation: Georgia's Elections and Caucasus and Central Asia Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Nov 2024
Get insight into the Caucasus and Central Asia region's political and economic outlook with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Georgia's Elections and Caucasus and Central Asia Outlook".
Georgian Elections-First Thoughts
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 27 Oct 2024
The much-anticipated Parliamentary Elections took place yesterday in a much calmer environment than thought and the Central Election Commission has announced that Georgian Dream has confidently won. With 99.9% of the votes counted, the results are the following: Georgian Dream" - 54.93% with 89 m...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgian elections—the calm before the storm
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Oct 2024
The Georgian Parliamentary elections are attracting a great deal of attention, and the CEC announced that international observer organizations are already at a record high. With the geopolitical stakes so high, the elections have been described by the ruling Georgian Dream as a choice between war...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: How did Armenia and Georgia manage to grow their economies by a fifth in 2022-2023?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Oct 2024
We have on a number of occasions underlined the strong growth performance that Armenia and Georgia have enjoyed over the last couple of years. This has helped boost their standing in the GDP-per-capita ranking in the CIS space. Both countries have delivered an impressive 20% real GDP growth over ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CA positions improve in the CCA in 2Q24, allowing for useful FX reserve buildup
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 04 Oct 2024
The publication of current account data for the CCA economies for 2Q24 allows us to assess the overall external performance in the region in the second quarter of the year. The 2Q24 data for our CCA economies, which was published this week, has shown an improving external position (for all count...
Sep CCA Highlights: Armenia keeps easing, Azerbaijan reveals key assumptions of 2025 budget, Georgia grows by 9.0% over 1H, Uzbekistan leaves policy rates unchanged
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Sep 2024
We briefly comment on the key macro and political events in the CCA in Sep: Armenia: Central Bank cuts policy rate by 25bpts to 7.50% Armenia: CPI remains contained at 1.3% YoY in Aug Armenia: Central Bank expects economy to grow by 5.8-6.5% in 2024 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator slow...