CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA
Analyst
Ivan Tchakarov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Are the clouds darkening over Armenia?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 17 Jan 2025
I argued in mid-2024 that Armenia's Eurobond outperformance (in particular relative to its higher-rated neighbor Georgia) was explicitly driven by perceptions of sharply reduced political and geopolitical risk premia. Internal challenges to PM Pashinyan failed to materialize over the course of 2...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CA positions firm up in CCA in 3Q24
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 10 Jan 2025
The 3Q24 data for our CCA economies, which was published late last year, shows that the regional current account position has continued to improve, although it remains in deficit. In particular, the CA deficit ex-Azerbaijan has come in at 1.7 percent of GDP vs 2.0 percent of GDP in 2Q and 3.1 per...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgian authorities score an important symbolic victory
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 03 Jan 2025
The year starts exactly as it ended, with Georgia occupying our minds, as the outgoing President surrendered much more easily than anticipated despite promising to offer stiffer resistance to those (Georgian Dream) who were barely hiding their desire to see her gone, and the new President was ina...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Q&A on 2024 Uzbekistan macro
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Dec 2024
In 2024, Uzbekistan's economy continued to grow at a pace comparable to previous years. GDP grew by 6.6% over Jan-Sep. In 11 months, accumulated inflation has risen to 8.7%, which is higher than the same indicator in 2023. Annual (YoY) inflation has exceeded 10%. At the end of the year, the Centr...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: 2025 CCA Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Forecast · 13 Dec 2024
2025 will bring lower GDP growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia, although the moderation in the pace of economic activity will be limited. We forecast average GDP growth to ease from an estimated 6.8% in 2024 to 5.5% in 2025, which will still be slightly above the previous decade's (2014-2023) ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Did Georgian Dream push its luck by suspending EU accession talks?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Dec 2024
Just as the post-election environment was getting calmer and the opposition looked dejected and lost, the new government (and Georgian Dream) decided to let the genie out of the bottle by springing the surprise decision to suspend EU accession talks until 2028. This only invigorated the oppositio...
Nov CCA Highlights: Armenia lowers CPI target, Azerbaijan grows strongly in Oct, Georgia sells record-high FX to prop up lari, Uzbekistan delays meeting CPI target
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 29 Nov 2024
We discuss briefly the key macro and political events in the Caucasus and Central Asia this Nov: Armenia: GDP grows by 5.2% YoY in 3Q24 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator decelerates to 4.2% YoY in Oct Armenia: CPI steady in Oct at 0.6% YoY Armenia: CB to lower inflation target to 3% in 20...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: A cynic's view on Abkhazia's Black Friday
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 Nov 2024
The breakaway Republic of Abkhazia, which is internationally recognized as part of Georgia, got its 15 minutes of fame last Friday when protesters stormed government buildings in Sukhumi in opposition to an investment agreement that would have legalized Russian investments and ownership of land a...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Shall we brace for a currency crisis in Georgia?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Nov 2024
For a week we tried to steer away from Georgia and discussed (last week) the medium-term budgetary envelope in Uzbekistan, but events in Georgia give us no respite. The very large decline in FX reserves in Georgia last month has raised fears about the sustainability of FX buffers in an environmen...